Coronavirus: Second wave

There is a great deal of hand-wringing regarding the recent resurgence in coronavirus cases in the United States. There is also consequently a great deal of finger-pointing and claims of mis-management. Before getting too far into discussing how policy is related to the trajectory of corona-virus cases, one should quickly look at the number of cases in disparate countries such as Israel, Sweden, Saudi Arabia, etc. There has been an upswing in cases in locales representing the spectrum of interventions. The simplest explanation for this is that the virus gets a vote in how it spreads, and such spread is largely insensitive to interventions meant to control it. This, if nothing else, suggests that the interventions accomplish little.

As was mentioned several weeks ago on this blog, the expectation is that the severity of disease will decline prior to the pandemic abating. This is what is, in fact observed. the typical explanation of this is that the genetic mutations account for his phenomenon, but such is not essential to predicting that this would happen. We don't know why the severity of disease declines, but on possibility is that it is not a genetic phenomenon, but an epigenetic one. It may result from the interaction of the virus with the environment, humans, and communities. Whatever the case, this latest resurgence in COVID-19 does seem more characteristic of "a bad flu" than did the earlier infections.