There are two key locations, the data for which are instructive for analyzing the Wuhan coronavirus epidemic. The first is the Diamond Princess cruise ship. That vessel had approximately 3600 people on board when the outbreak occurred and presumably everyone on board was exposed. Yet, only about 20% were diagnosed with COVID-19. The other relevant locale is the Republic of San Marino. That is a very small (24 square mile) sovereign state located 200 miles from Milan and completely surrounded by Italy. Its population is about 33,300 and like the Diamond Princess, it is reasonable to assume that almost all have been exposed. There are 144 cases of COVID-19 there at this time.
If Italy, the country hardest hit by corona virus experiences continued exponential growth, at the same rate, it will reach the same relative prevalence of COVID-19 as San Marino on about April 1, 2020.
The daily new cases as a percentage of existing cases is currently 15% in Italy, 2% in New York state, 10% in Washington state, and 1.8% in South Korea.
An informal interpretation of the above is that approximately 5% of the population is susceptible to clinical infection (symptomatic) under "typical" exposure environments, approximately 20% under "intense" exposure environments and approximately 1% under "precautionary" exposure environments. Likewise, the corresponding new/existing case rations are about 43%, 75% and 12% respectively.
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