Coronavirus: Modeling and prediction

To take the information we have available to us and construct a model that allows prediction of where the coronavirus epidemic is going, we need to determine two factors. These can be inferred from the reported data about the disease spread and represent the difficulty (or ease) with which the virus spreads and the average length of time an infected person remains contagious. These factors then can be used to construct a simple model that will produce a bell-shaped curve that is consistent with those representing other epidemics, as well as the experience in other countries during the spread of COVID-19. These models will be described and discussed in subsequent posts.