Coronavirus predictions

The data regarding coronavirus infections and deaths is still relatively scant, but is sufficient to make some observations and those observations allow crude predictions. Given the current state of the data the following predictions result:

1. The number of total infections in the United States in the first wave of infections will be approximately 400,000;

2. The number of deaths in the United States during the first wave will be approximately 5800;

3. There will be a second wave, that will not be as severe as the first;

4. Hydroxychloroquine will be found to reduce mortality by about 25%.

Rule of thumb for determining when the epidemic has peaked in an area: When the ratio of daily new cases to total cases, having previously gone above 0.3 drops to 0.14, and stays below 0.14 for three consecutive days. Note that the number of cases and deaths will continue to grow, but the epidemic will slow.